Fred Thompson on Mike Huckabee

This clip is perhaps the best articulation I have seen of why Huckabee is NOT a full tri-fecta (values, economic, defense) conservative.  While I still think Thompson lacks the passion to be an effective president, I am beginning to wonder if the vice-presidency would  a better fit for him.  Perhaps……. 

 

Mitt Romney for President: Part I

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary I find myself at a cross roads.  I have tried to find a candidate I could throw my support to for months and until recently I have come up empty handed.

 

I knew that Giuliani was out automatically.  While I respect his gifts of leadership and solid free market economic policies I simply can not bring myself to vote for someone who does not believe life begins at conception.  No matter how much he promises to appoint constitutionalist judges, the mere fact the GOP has nominated someone pro-choice will politically cripple the pro-life movement and family values movement for years to come.  And of course as icing on the cake there is his abysmal record on protecting 2^nd Amendment rights.

 

My next hope came in the form of Fred Thompson.  This actor/senator from Tennessee had all of the right positions on nearly every fundamental conservative issue, except campaign finance reform, which for me is a negotiable.  On top of his impressive resume he has probably the best position on Immigration of any of the major candidates, focusing on attrition and deportation.  My problem with Fred is his lack of conviction.  I do not see the passion in his eyes or in his voice for the principles he is exposing.  Sometimes it seems he does not even want to be there and he is just running for president because he has nothing better to do.  I realize that this is just a personality issue, but the man we nominate for these next 4 (8) years will have to do ideological battle on a regular basis with who seek to make everyone a ward of the state.  When you are playing the Super Bowl, the last person you want playing quarterback is the water-boy.

 

Next, out of nowhere came the force of nature that is Mike Huckabee.  His campaign is brilliant.  He portrayed himself consistently as the proud conservative evangelical.  This SBC preacher was making waves on his unapologetic Christianity and defense of life and marriage.  As the Huckaboom gathered momentum people began to do the strangest thing, they actually looked at his record.  As it turns out, this “conservative messiah” could generously be described as a pro-life Democrat.  He raised taxes left and right, allowed illegal immigrants in-state college tuition rates and scholarships, and supports government intervention in many areas of your life that would make you think you were talking to John Edwards.  Then came the populist rhetoric of “main-street vs. wall-street” and anyone with half a brain would realize that while he is great on issues of life and traditional marriage he is misguided on nearly everything else.  The nail in the coffin for me was the endorsement for Huckabee from the Dallas Morning News, which you can read here.  The readers digest version is that they endorse Huckabee because he reminds them the most of a Democrat.

 

My desperation grew to such heights that I nearly considered the little known Libertarian Republican from Texas, Ron Paul.  As I did my research on Dr. Paul I discovered that I liked him quite a lot.  In fact I would give my full fledged support for this candidate if it were not for his “head in the sand” foreign policy.  I love his libertarian domestic issue platform.  No more income tax, promote homeschooling, drastically reduce government agencies and entitlements, and everything else one would do to throw off the shackles of the nanny state.  However my problem with Ron Paul is (not surprising) the same reason I am not a registered Libertarian; isolationist foreign policy.  While I love the idea of dumping the UN and staying clear of international courts, removing ourselves from the world stage is just madness.  He fervently opposes the Iraq War (which I support) and somehow links it to every problem here in the US.  Mr. Paul’s solution to global terrorism is to remove all US influence from anywhere other than our own shores, and we will be left alone.  While I admire his commitment to the constitution, his stance on limiting any and all military action to declarations of war from Congress is just not feasible in today’s geo-political environment.

 

As I reflected on these issues I came across another candidate that I had dismissed at the beginning.  Mitt Romney was someone I had never heard of, was governor of a liberal state (Massachusetts), had an inconsistent record on abortion and homosexual unions, and was a Mormon.  And as we all know Mormon’s simply should not be president…..or so I thought.  When I returned to Mitt Romney for consideration I began to deal with the issue of: “Could someone who is not a Christian be President?“  A quick glance at my desk copy of the U.S. Constitution revealed there was no requirement for a certain religious affiliation to hold the office of President.  I then begin to consider the fact that when it comes to political leaders it is more of an issue of their world view rather than the specifics of their salvation that is in question.  Ultimately we do not know if those political leaders who even profess Christianity have truly been called to God by His grace.  We are setting ourselves up for disappointment if we require simply a religious label for our political leaders, rather than a way of seeing the world and the condition of those in it.  Mitt Romney is not a Christian, and Mormonism is a Christian derived cult, but his world view is based on a Judeo-Christian morality.  We are casting our vote for the person, not for the religion/cult of the candidate. 

 

Once this hurdle was crossed, and I evaluated the candidate as a whole, I saw Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate best suited to lead our country through the times ahead of us.  In my next post I will lay out the top 10 reasons why I am supporting Governor Romney as my candidate for the Republican nomination.  Until next time……

 Governor Mitt Romney for President!

Iowa and New Hampshire Prophecy Part II

 WARNING! NO SPIRITUAL GIFTS WERE USED IN THE MAKING OF THESE PREDICTIONS

SATISFACTION DEFINITELY NOT GUARANTEED

Now that the Democrat Party race for Iowa and New Hampshire has been analyzed, I hope to move on to the slightly more convoluted race for the Republican Party nomination.  The Republican race not only has more feasible candidates (4 ½ by my count….yes Adam the ½ is Ron Paul), but it is much more diverse in the positions of candidates.  Now the average Democrat reading this is probably scoffing at the idea of diversity in the Republican Party.  But consider the fact that currently this race is between a Rockefeller Republican mayor vs. Mormon CEO vs. Baptist Environmentalist Populist vs. RHINO war hero vs. movie star who’s hobby is running for president vs. a libertarian.  Compared to the Democratic race of three lawyers who hate W, the Republican race is practically a cornucopia of variety. 

 

Now as we consider the race in Iowa and New Hampshire it is important to keep in mind the Giuliani question.  As has been referred to in my previous article, “America’s Mayor” has decided to ignore the early states that he know he would lose and focus on later states with more delegates like Florida.  While I think this strategy will back fire on Rudy, whoever comes out of these first two competitions will have to go head-to-head with Giuliani at some point.  That being said, here are my predictions for the Republican race in Iowa and New Hampshire.

   

Iowa Republican Party Prediction

1^st Mitt Romney

2^ndMike Huckabee

3^rd John McCain

 

In what will be one of the closest primaries ever, Romney will bet Huckabee by no more that 2 percentage points possibly even within 1 percentage point.  This prediction is due to three factors.  The first is the superior organization that Romney has placed in these early states.  Whether you like it or not money and strategy can make all of the difference in especially close races.  The second reason is that people are starting to see the “real” Huckabee and noting that despite his pro-life credentials he is an anti-prosperity candidate when it comes to economic and government activity policies.  The third reason is hope.  While this is not where I plan on going into the reasons why Huckabee is bad news I hope thoughtful people, particularly Christians, can see through him and see the danger of some the polices he has advocated.  As for third place in the race I think this will go to John McCain because there is no one else.  Guliani and Thompson has all but ignored the state and Ron Paul will suffer from the caucus system since in the Republican race it is the professional establishment political types that run the caucuses. 

 New Hampshire Republican Party Prediction

1^st John McCain

2^nd Mitt Romney

3^rd Ron Paul

 

Yes that’s right….Ron Paul in third.  We will get to him later.  For some reason John McCain has reached near sainthood to the Republicans in New Hampshire.  Perhaps it is the moderate leaning conservatism of the state, or perhaps McCain slipped something into the water supply, but New Hampshire-ites are crazy for McCain.  Mitt Romney will pull in a strong second for those who have not drunk McCain’s “Straight Talk Kool-Aid.”  Again Romney has spent a lot of time and money here and after a win in Iowa it will all pay off.  Now to the sleeper of the Republican primary: Dr. Ron Paul Republican Congressman from Texas.  If you have not heard of Ron Paul don’t feel bad.  He has yet to break into double digits in any race.  This wily libertarian Republican has a near fanatical support base across the country particularly among non-traditional voters.  This is where Ron Paul will come out of nowhere.  Most polls only show likely voters.  Many of Ron Paul’s supporters either have never voted or are not registered with any particular party. They will go to the polls in New Hampshire and support him in droves totally throwing off the projections.  Will he win in New Hampshire?  No, not with the great McCain in the picture, but what he will do is effectively burst the “Huckaboom.”  If I am right and Huckabee loses both New Hampshire and Iowa he is done.

 Well there you have it.  My predictions on how the upcoming primaries could possible pan out.  Some of you may be wondering whom I am supporting.  Well Lord willing, that will be the subject of the next post here at Uber-Conservative.  I will give my top reasons for supporting the candidate I am supporting.  Also, if I have time, I am considering addressing the reasons why any Republican (even conservative Christians) should beware the Huckaboom.  Have a great week. 

Iowa and New Hampshire Prophecy Part I

WARNING! NO SPIRITUAL GIFTS WERE USED IN THE MAKING OF THESE PREDICTIONS

SATISFACTION DEFINITELY NOT GUARANTEED

 

Well now that we are less than 24 hours from the opening gun of this years primary season I felt it is now appropriate to pontificate on some possible scenarios for Iowa and New Hampshire.  For some candidates their placing in these two contests will make or break them.  For one so called front runner (Giuliani) they could not matter less since he is not competitive in any primary until Florida on January 29^th.  For the other front-runner, Mrs. Bill Clinton, she has dumped tons of time and money into these two states.  However when she loses (and she will) both of these states, she will shrug off their importance and peruse a “national strategy” like her Republican counterpart.  For every other candidate these two contests will set the stage for the rest of the year.  In Part I of this series we will first deal with the Democratic Party contests.

 

Iowa Democrat Party Prediction:

1^stBarak Obama

2^nd John Edwards

3^rd Hillary Clinton

In Iowa, Barak Obama has put in the time and the effort to win this state.  His poll numbers are the most consistent and have been rising steadily and consistently these past few weeks.   Also his “agent of change” persona will prove the most effective amongst the hard-core leftist Democratic caucus goers of Iowa.   I will not take the time to attempt to explain Iowa caucus system, but the short of it is that it is such a complicated and intense process, that only the politically hyper-active participate in it.  It is for this reason also that John Edwards will pull ahead of Mrs. Bill Clinton in this contest.  With his smooth nanny-state populism and “troops out in a year” platforms he has struck a powerful cord with the Democrat caucus goes of Iowa.  The caucus system will also most likely be the down fall of Mrs. Bill Clinton.  Whether she likes it or not, she is the “establishment” candidate for the Democrat Party.  After a year of a do-nothing Democrat controlled legislature, most liberal Democrats want anything other than the status-quo.

Of course other scenarios are possible but I think the above prediction is the most likely.  The true toss up will be between Obama and Edwards.  The primary reason I put Obama on top was a mechanical one since it appears Obama has more money and a better organization in Iowa than Edwards.  But again due to the nature of the caucus system this may not have as much relevance as in other states.

New Hampshire Democrat Party Prediction:

1^stBarak Obama

2^nd Hillary Clinton

3^rd John Edwards

New Hampshire is a bit tricky because much will depend on the results of Iowa.  The New Hampshire primary is on January 8^th and five days is plenty of time for momentum to build from an upset in Iowa and for a candidate to overcome another.  If Iowa transpires the way I think it will, Obama will get enough of a boost to overcome Mrs. Bill Clinton, but it will be close.  Even with a strong second showing in Iowa, Edwards’s extreme populist message will not gain him much more support than he already has but will keep him in the running as we head into the next round of primaries.  As I stated above, the Mrs. Bill Clinton campaign will say they are disappointed in the Iowa/New Hampshire results but that they expected the results all along and will move on to states where they are more competitive.  While I think she won’t win either of these contests, at least she will come out of it in a better position than Giuliani who has completely ignored these two states until the 11^th hour.

 

In the case of the Democrats, it is hard to tell how things will look beyond New Hampshire.  Mrs. Bill Clinton is currently polling strong in the Michigan primary which follows New Hampshire on January 15th.  However momentum is a powerful thing in politics and if Mrs. Bill Clinton is hammered in both contests the tables could turn in Michigan.  The advantage Mrs. Bill Clinton has in Michigan is that it is a much more “establishment” orientated electorate for both the Democrats and Republicans.  This could cause a bit of a speed bump to Obama and Edwards, but with sufficient momentum from the earlier primaries it could give one or both of their campaigns enough power to roll over this bump and the Clinton campaign in Michigan.  Looking beyond Michigan, well there are to many variables in these early races to effectively predict how other states will fall.  Needless to say the next two weeks will determine the circumstances of the remaining contests.

 

Up next……..Iowa and New Hampshire predictions for the Republican Party.