WARNING! NO SPIRITUAL GIFTS WERE USED IN THE MAKING OF THESE PREDICTIONS

SATISFACTION DEFINITELY NOT GUARANTEED

 

Well now that we are less than 24 hours from the opening gun of this years primary season I felt it is now appropriate to pontificate on some possible scenarios for Iowa and New Hampshire.  For some candidates their placing in these two contests will make or break them.  For one so called front runner (Giuliani) they could not matter less since he is not competitive in any primary until Florida on January 29th.  For the other front-runner, Mrs. Bill Clinton, she has dumped tons of time and money into these two states.  However when she loses (and she will) both of these states, she will shrug off their importance and peruse a “national strategy” like her Republican counterpart.  For every other candidate these two contests will set the stage for the rest of the year.  In Part I of this series we will first deal with the Democratic Party contests.

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Iowa Democrat Party Prediction:

1stBarak Obama

2nd John Edwards

3rd Hillary Clinton

In Iowa, Barak Obama has put in the time and the effort to win this state.  His poll numbers are the most consistent and have been rising steadily and consistently these past few weeks.   Also his “agent of change” persona will prove the most effective amongst the hard-core leftist Democratic caucus goers of Iowa.   I will not take the time to attempt to explain Iowa caucus system, but the short of it is that it is such a complicated and intense process, that only the politically hyper-active participate in it.  It is for this reason also that John Edwards will pull ahead of Mrs. Bill Clinton in this contest.  With his smooth nanny-state populism and “troops out in a year” platforms he has struck a powerful cord with the Democrat caucus goes of Iowa.  The caucus system will also most likely be the down fall of Mrs. Bill Clinton.  Whether she likes it or not, she is the “establishment” candidate for the Democrat Party.  After a year of a do-nothing Democrat controlled legislature, most liberal Democrats want anything other than the status-quo.

Of course other scenarios are possible but I think the above prediction is the most likely.  The true toss up will be between Obama and Edwards.  The primary reason I put Obama on top was a mechanical one since it appears Obama has more money and a better organization in Iowa than Edwards.  But again due to the nature of the caucus system this may not have as much relevance as in other states.

New Hampshire Democrat Party Prediction:

1stBarak Obama

2nd Hillary Clinton

3rd John Edwards

New Hampshire is a bit tricky because much will depend on the results of Iowa.  The New Hampshire primary is on January 8th and five days is plenty of time for momentum to build from an upset in Iowa and for a candidate to overcome another.  If Iowa transpires the way I think it will, Obama will get enough of a boost to overcome Mrs. Bill Clinton, but it will be close.  Even with a strong second showing in Iowa, Edwards’s extreme populist message will not gain him much more support than he already has but will keep him in the running as we head into the next round of primaries.  As I stated above, the Mrs. Bill Clinton campaign will say they are disappointed in the Iowa/New Hampshire results but that they expected the results all along and will move on to states where they are more competitive.  While I think she won’t win either of these contests, at least she will come out of it in a better position than Giuliani who has completely ignored these two states until the 11th hour.

 

In the case of the Democrats, it is hard to tell how things will look beyond New Hampshire.  Mrs. Bill Clinton is currently polling strong in the Michigan primary which follows New Hampshire on January 15th.  However momentum is a powerful thing in politics and if Mrs. Bill Clinton is hammered in both contests the tables could turn in Michigan.  The advantage Mrs. Bill Clinton has in Michigan is that it is a much more “establishment” orientated electorate for both the Democrats and Republicans.  This could cause a bit of a speed bump to Obama and Edwards, but with sufficient momentum from the earlier primaries it could give one or both of their campaigns enough power to roll over this bump and the Clinton campaign in Michigan.  Looking beyond Michigan, well there are to many variables in these early races to effectively predict how other states will fall.  Needless to say the next two weeks will determine the circumstances of the remaining contests.

 

Up next……..Iowa and New Hampshire predictions for the Republican Party.