WARNING! NO SPIRITUAL GIFTS WERE USED IN THE MAKING OF THESE PREDICTIONS

SATISFACTION DEFINITELY NOT GUARANTEED

Now that the Democrat Party race for Iowa and New Hampshire has been analyzed, I hope to move on to the slightly more convoluted race for the Republican Party nomination.  The Republican race not only has more feasible candidates (4 ½ by my count….yes Adam the ½ is Ron Paul), but it is much more diverse in the positions of candidates.  Now the average Democrat reading this is probably scoffing at the idea of diversity in the Republican Party.  But consider the fact that currently this race is between a Rockefeller Republican mayor vs. Mormon CEO vs. Baptist Environmentalist Populist vs. RHINO war hero vs. movie star who’s hobby is running for president vs. a libertarian.  Compared to the Democratic race of three lawyers who hate W, the Republican race is practically a cornucopia of variety. 

 

Now as we consider the race in Iowa and New Hampshire it is important to keep in mind the Giuliani question.  As has been referred to in my previous article, “America’s Mayor” has decided to ignore the early states that he know he would lose and focus on later states with more delegates like Florida.  While I think this strategy will back fire on Rudy, whoever comes out of these first two competitions will have to go head-to-head with Giuliani at some point.  That being said, here are my predictions for the Republican race in Iowa and New Hampshire.

   

Iowa Republican Party Prediction

1^st Mitt Romney

2^ndMike Huckabee

3^rd John McCain

 

In what will be one of the closest primaries ever, Romney will bet Huckabee by no more that 2 percentage points possibly even within 1 percentage point.  This prediction is due to three factors.  The first is the superior organization that Romney has placed in these early states.  Whether you like it or not money and strategy can make all of the difference in especially close races.  The second reason is that people are starting to see the “real” Huckabee and noting that despite his pro-life credentials he is an anti-prosperity candidate when it comes to economic and government activity policies.  The third reason is hope.  While this is not where I plan on going into the reasons why Huckabee is bad news I hope thoughtful people, particularly Christians, can see through him and see the danger of some the polices he has advocated.  As for third place in the race I think this will go to John McCain because there is no one else.  Guliani and Thompson has all but ignored the state and Ron Paul will suffer from the caucus system since in the Republican race it is the professional establishment political types that run the caucuses. 

 New Hampshire Republican Party Prediction

1^st John McCain

2^nd Mitt Romney

3^rd Ron Paul

 

Yes that’s right….Ron Paul in third.  We will get to him later.  For some reason John McCain has reached near sainthood to the Republicans in New Hampshire.  Perhaps it is the moderate leaning conservatism of the state, or perhaps McCain slipped something into the water supply, but New Hampshire-ites are crazy for McCain.  Mitt Romney will pull in a strong second for those who have not drunk McCain’s “Straight Talk Kool-Aid.”  Again Romney has spent a lot of time and money here and after a win in Iowa it will all pay off.  Now to the sleeper of the Republican primary: Dr. Ron Paul Republican Congressman from Texas.  If you have not heard of Ron Paul don’t feel bad.  He has yet to break into double digits in any race.  This wily libertarian Republican has a near fanatical support base across the country particularly among non-traditional voters.  This is where Ron Paul will come out of nowhere.  Most polls only show likely voters.  Many of Ron Paul’s supporters either have never voted or are not registered with any particular party. They will go to the polls in New Hampshire and support him in droves totally throwing off the projections.  Will he win in New Hampshire?  No, not with the great McCain in the picture, but what he will do is effectively burst the “Huckaboom.”  If I am right and Huckabee loses both New Hampshire and Iowa he is done.

 Well there you have it.  My predictions on how the upcoming primaries could possible pan out.  Some of you may be wondering whom I am supporting.  Well Lord willing, that will be the subject of the next post here at Uber-Conservative.  I will give my top reasons for supporting the candidate I am supporting.  Also, if I have time, I am considering addressing the reasons why any Republican (even conservative Christians) should beware the Huckaboom.  Have a great week.